If economic data continues to improve, it will be difficult for the Fed to hold off on tightening until 2023. We believe the Fed will start hinting at tapering in late 2H21 and could be forced to start tapering in late 2021 or early 2022. If history is a guide, the market will be a few steps ahead of the Fed. This Strategy Snapshot examines historical tightening cycles to develop a portfolio playbook.
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